Forsyth Barr predicts a 36% chance of the All Blacks winning the 2019 RWC

News & Events

Posted 19 Sep 2019

Forsyth Barr has a 100% success rate in predicting the winner of the 2011 and 2015 World Cups, correctly picking New Zealand as the most likely champion. So we are once again using our proven Prediction Model to predict the 2019 winner. The model is the work of our award-winning team of investment research analysts, and is based on a comprehensive analysis using a five-pronged approach. 

It considers each nation’s current form, historic performance, previous performance, betting odds, and a survey of our Investment Advisers. The current trends and future outlook are heavily weighted in our model, as past performance can’t always be an indication of future results.

Our analysis predicts a 36% chance of victory for the All Blacks at the 2019 World Cup. This has dropped from the 41% we predicted in 2015 and the 48% in 2011. The model sees South Africa (15%), England (14%) and Wales (11%) the next most likely, but gives France only a 3% chance of winning (and we know what everyone says about counting out the French).

Visit Rugby and Markets to find the Tournament Prediction Model and insightful interviews with Sir Graham Henry, Richie McCaw and Francois Pienaar.


You can also follow @ForsythBarr on Twitter as the tournament unfolds. 


These webpages contain the opinions of Forsyth Barr and are not to be relied on to make any determinations or predictions about the results of the Rugby World Cup. While Forsyth Barr will be paying close attention to the Rugby World Cup and supporting the All Blacks, it has no formal connection with, nor is it endorsed by or is endorsing, the Rugby World Cup, the All Blacks, Rugby World Cup Limited or the New Zealand Rugby Union. Copyright in these webpages is owned by Forsyth Barr Limited, except for the trade marks, “Rugby World Cup” and “All Blacks”, as well as all photographs obtained from Getty Images. Except as provided by the Copyright Act 1994, no part of these webpages may be reproduced or stored in a retrieval system in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.

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