Rugby and Markets 2019 - Forsyth Barr's Predictions
Welcome to Rugby and Markets 2019. Here you’ll find Forsyth Barr’s Tournament Prediction Model from our award winning team of investment research analysts.
Read our interviews with Richie McCaw, Sir Graham Henry and Francois Pienaar.
|The Great Redeemer - An Interview with SIR GRAHAM HENRY
Sir Graham Henry is a household name across New Zealand, bringing home the Webb Ellis Cup for the first time in 24 years. His professional coaching career began in 1992 when he took the helm of the provincial Auckland side, winning four consecutive National Provincial Championship titles during his six year tenure. Following success in New Zealand, Sir Graham headed offshore to coach the Welsh, where he earned the moniker “The Great Redeemer”, and later became the first coach of the British and Irish Lions from outside the Home Nation... more
Captain Fantastic - An Interview with RICHIE MCCAW
Richie McCaw doesn’t really need an introduction - the most capped test player in history, the most tests as captain, an incredible 89% winning record, All Blacks captain for the victorious 2011 and 2015 Rugby World Cup campaigns (as well as captaining the All Blacks in their famous quarter-final loss to France in 2007)...more
Rainbow Warrior - An Interview with FRANCOIS PIENAAR
Praised by Nelson Mandela for his leadership and his attempts to reach out to all sectors of South African society, Francois Pienaar led South Africa to victory at the 1995 Rugby World Cup. His rugby career included 29 tests, all as captain, spanned both amateur and professional eras, and bridged the apartheid and post-apartheid periods of South Africa’s recent history...more.
The Prediction Model:
We have a 100% success rate in predicting the winner of the 2011 and 2015 World Cups, correctly picking New Zealand as the most likely champion. So we are once again using our proven formula to predict the 2019 winner.
- World Rugby Rankings to determine the head-to-head probabilities of any particular team beating another;
- As an alternative method of calculating head-to-head probabilities using 23 years of historic results from the start of the professional era;
- Past Rugby World Cup performances;
- Odds offered by global bookmakers;
- Survey of Forsyth Barr staff; and
- Bringing it all together - the final analysis.
Country of Origin
Every time a Rugby World Cup rolls around the topic of player eligibility comes up with top tier teams often facing criticism for player pilfering. Particularly from the Pacific Islands, as players are lured offshore by bigger pay cheques and rugby exposure. In 2015 we crunched the numbers and accusations of team stacking were far from the truth. We have repeated this analysis in 2019. Read more...
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These webpages contain the opinions of Forsyth Barr and are not to be relied on to make any determinations or predictions about the results of the Rugby World Cup. While Forsyth Barr will be paying close attention to the Rugby World Cup and supporting the All Blacks, it has no formal connection with, nor is it endorsed by or is endorsing, the Rugby World Cup, the All Blacks, Rugby World Cup Limited or the New Zealand Rugby Union. Copyright in these webpages is owned by Forsyth Barr Limited, except for the trade marks, “Rugby World Cup” and “All Blacks”, as well as all photographs obtained from Getty Images. Except as provided by the Copyright Act 1994, no part of these webpages may be reproduced or stored in a retrieval system in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.