Forsyth Barr MST Access Research
Forsyth Barr MST Access Research delivers institutional quality research to investors and fund managers on small and microcap companies, leveraging intelligence and insight from the capabilities of both Forsyth Barr and MST Access. The research provided is issuer-sponsored.
Latest report
Rakon Limited
5G Weakness Persisting, Inventory Stabilising?
24 APRIL 2024 BY JAMES LINDSAY AND WILL TWISS
We adjust our Rakon (RAK) forecasts to account for prolonged market weakness in its key Telecommunications segment (~55% of FY24E revenue) following negative updates from key global telco players. Nokia (NOK) and Ericsson (ERIC) reported 1Q24 numbers in the last week, with both experiencing notable revenue declines. NOK reported a significant fall in sales, led by a deep contraction in its network infrastructure and mobile networks divisions. Similarly, ERIC experienced a downturn in sales, calling out a slowdown in 5G network deployment in its critical North American market as a key driver. While our FY24 estimates already align with the lower end of RAK’s guidance, we reduce our FY25/FY26 estimates as we push out a recovery in Telecommunications. Our blended spot valuation falls -2cps to NZ$0.98, and we await news regarding the potential NZ$1.70 takeover offer.
19 April 2024 | ikeGPS - Sales Cycle Turning Positive — 4Q24
ikeGPS's (IKE) 4Q24 and FY24 performance update was in-line with our expectations, with positive outlook commentary suggesting the sales cycle is likely turning positive...
18 April 2024 | Tower Limited - It's Raining Upgrades
Tower (TWR) has updated its FY24 guidance. Underlying NPAT is now expected to be ‘greater than NZ$35m’, up from ‘the top end of or exceeding a range of between NZ$22m and NZ$27m’...
17 April 2024 | Scott Technology - Mixed 1H24 Amidst Transition
Scott Technology (SCT) reported a mixed 1H24 result. While revenue and operating EBITDA aligned with our expectations at a group level...
12 April 2024 | Tower Limited - Benign is Divine
Tower (TWR) has experienced a positive reversal of fortunes, with its 1H24 likely including zero large events...
25 March 2024 | Scott Technology - Leadership Transition Amid Continued Growth
Scott Technology's (SCT) CEO, John Kippenberger, and CFO, Cameron Mathewson, have resigned within one week...
14 March 2024 | Scott Technology - Rocklabs' New Auckland Site Grand Opening
Rocklabs, a renowned brand within Scott Technology's (SCT) minerals division (~15% of group sales), is a pioneer in sample preparation equipment for mining...
29 February 2024 | NZME Limited Ad - Market Weakness Drives Newshub Closure
In significant news for New Zealand's media industry, Warner Bros. Discovery New Zealand has announced a restructuring that will see the closure...
26 February 2024 | Harmoney - Tuning up the Efficiency in 1H24
Harmoney (HMY) reported a resilient 1H24 result, with operational efficiency gains the key positive. Rising interest rates and a weak macro environment...
22 February 2024 | NZME Limited - Turning the Page on a Challenging FY23
NZME (NZM) reported a subdued FY23 result, with operating EBITDA of NZ$56.2m being below our expectations and the guidance range of NZ$57m–NZ$59m...
22 February 2024 | Tower Limited - ASM Positively Surprises
Tower (TWR) provided a robust FY24 trading update and upbeat FY25 and FY26 guidance at its ASM. Operational metrics for the first four months of FY24 were in-line or ahead of our expectations, with positive developments in: (1) gross written premium...
22 February 2024 | MHM Automation - Cessation of Coverage on Pending Delisting
In light of the impending delisting on 23 February 2023, and final court approval being received, following MHM Automation Limited's (MHM) takeover via a Scheme of Arrangement by Bettcher Industries, Inc, we immediately cease coverage on MHM...
20 February 2024 | Harmoney - The Sweet Sound of Operational Leverage
Harmoney Corp (HMY.AX) is Australasia's largest online direct personal lender. Its innovative online lending platform utilises comprehensive data insights...
15 February 2024 | Tower Limited - Clear Sky at Night, Tower's Delight
Tower (TWR) has upgraded its FY24 underlying earnings guidance, with strong gross written premium (GWP) growth and better-than-expected claims driving robust year-to-date trading...
13 February 2024 | Turners Automotive Group Ltd - Motoring Towards Another Record Result
Turners Automotive (TRA) has upgraded FY24 earnings guidance, reflecting a resilient core Auto Retail business and emerging tailwinds in its Finance segment as the OCR stabilises.
4 August 2023 | MHM Automation - Automation and Materials Handling Go Global
MHM Automation (MHM) designs and supplies innovative, engineered solutions for the food and primary industries worldwide, with a particular focus on state-of-the-art food processing and packaging technologies.
29 September 2023 | Tower Limited - Successful FY24 Reinsurance Placement
Tower (TWR) has successfully navigated a challenging reinsurance market to renew its cover for FY24.
11 October 2023 | Turners Automotive Group Ltd Speeding to Record Profits in 1H24
Tower (TWR) has revised its FY23 guidance and now expects underlying profit after tax to be between NZ$7m and NZ$10m, up +NZ$8m at the midpoint.
19 October 2023 | Scott Technology - FY23 Result — Core Growth
Scott Technology (SCT) released a robust FY23 result that underscored the company's strategic focus to productise automated solutions across its core industries of: 1) protein processing, 2) materials handling and logistics, and 3) minerals sample...
26 October 2023 | ikeGPS 1H24 Trading Update — Transactional Delays
ikeGPS' (IKE) 1H24 trading update showed a weak result, with revenue declining -32% versus 1H23 to NZ$10.5m. The decline was driven by a significant slowdown in transactional activity from key customers.
6 November 2023 | Scott Technology - MHM Takeover Crystallises Value
Scott Technology's (SCT) strategic review has been brought into the limelight again, with NZX-listed peer MHM Automation Limited (MHM) receiving a takeover bid from Bettcher Industries.
15 November 2023 | Tower Limited - Customer Remediation Process Update
Tower Limited (TWR) has provided an update on its remediation process for customers affected by administrative errors in calculating multi-policy discounts.
24 November 2023 | Rakon Limited - 1H24 — Sector Weakness Deepens
Rakon (RAK) reported a subdued 1H24 with cyclicality evident as its Positioning and Telecommunications revenues slowed
considerably.
considerably.
23 November 2023 | Turners Automotive Group Ltd - Steering Through 1H24 Drives Growth
Turners Automotive Group's (TRA) 1H24 result reflects a robust performance across its core business segments, with solid
growth in revenue and profitability.
growth in revenue and profitability.
16 November 2023 | NZME Limited - Investor Day Highlights—2023
NZME Limited's (NZM) 2023 Investor Day offered refreshed insight into the company's strategies and performance. The presentation unveiled detail on: 1) NZM's commitment to digital transformation and audience engagement...
12 December 2023 | Rakon Limited - NZ$1.70 Per Share Offer Received
Rakon (RAK) announced it has received a non-binding, indicative proposal from a ‘credible industry player’ to purchase 100% of the company in an all-cash offer of NZ$1.70 per share.
9 February 2024 | ikeGPS Subscriptions Power On as Transactions Dim
ikeGPS (IKE) released a weak 3Q24 market update, with positive trends in new customer growth and subscriptions overshadowed by a deepening slowdown in transactional activity...
24 November 2022 | Tower Limited - FY22 Guidance Beaten But One-offs Impact
Tower (TWR) reported a solid FY22 result, with underlying NPAT up +31% to NZ$27.3m from NZ$20.8m in FY21. Reported NPAT was flat at NZ$18.9m relative to NZ$19.3 in FY21 after including the higher Christchurch earthquake costs and one-off policy...
30 November 2022 | ikeGPS - Solid Momentum Shown in 1H23
ikeGPS (IKE) 1H23 result saw revenues grow +170% on the prior period to NZ$15.4m, as recently pre-released. This solid result shows good momentum in the core business, with rising customer numbers and transactional revenues displaying exceptional...
12 January 2023 | Tower Limited - New Zealand General Insurance Digest
The NZ General Insurance Digest provides a snapshot of relevant information for the general insurance industry. We detail information pertinent to Tower (TWR), local financial comparables and Australasian listed insurance peers. Edition 2.
18 January 2023 | Trade Window Holdings - Capital Raising — Up to NZ$20m Being Sought
TWL has announced a capital raising of up to NZ$20m at NZ$0.45. The issue price represents a 10% discount to the closing price on 16 January 2022. Undertaken via a non-underwritten share offer...
8 February 2023 | ikeGSP - Powering Up During 3Q23
IKE reported a solid nine month result for the period ending 31 December 2022, with YTD revenue of NZ$23.3m, a +134%
increase on the prior period.
increase on the prior period.
28 February 2023 | Trade Window Holdings - Capital Raising Falls Short of Expectations but Discussions Continue
TWL has announced that it has raised NZ$5.4m under its non-underwritten capital raising. This falls well short of its target of NZ$20m despite some key investors participating in the offer.
2 March 2023 | Trade Window Holdings - Coverage Discontinued
We discontinue coverage of Trade Window (TWL) with immediate effect. As a result our previous valuation and earnings forecasts can no longer be relied upon by investors.
8 March 2023 | Rakon Limited - Looking Beyond a Solid FY23 Guidance Update
Rakon (RAK) tightened FY23 guidance (ending March) by lifting the bottom of the range. Underlying EBITDA guidance range is now NZ$40m to NZ$44m (previously NZ$38m to NZ$44m).
13 April 2023 | Scott Technology - 1H23 Results Reinforce ‘Scott 2025’ Strategy
Scott Technology (SCT) released a strong 1H23 result for the six months ending 28 February 2023, with revenue of NZ$127m, up +11% on restated 1H22 numbers.
9 May 2023 | Tower Limited - Wild Weather Weighs but Growth Continues
Tower Limited's (TWR) market update reflects an exceptionally unusual year of weather in New Zealand and across the Pacific.
25 May 2023 | Rakon Limited - Robust FY23 Completed
Rakon (RAK) reported solid underlying EBITDA of NZ$42.2m for FY23, within management's upgraded guidance. The FY23 underlying EBITDA result was down -23% on FY22, a year bolstered by one-off contracts at elevated margins.
31 May 2023 | ikeGPS Operating Leverage Emerges on Stellar Topline
ikeGPS (IKE) reported a stellar FY23, with operating revenues growing +93% to NZ$30.8m. Due to a less favourable product mix in FY23 the gross margin percentage fell -9% to ~53%, meaning gross profit was NZ$16.3m, in line with our estimate.
18 July 2023 | Rakon Limited - Demand and Inventory Led Softness Continues
Rakon (RAK) has provided a downbeat market update, warning of up to NZ$10m downside risk to its FY24 EBITDA guidance range of NZ$26m to NZ$34m (though it did not withdraw existing guidance).
20 July 2023 | Tower Limited - Claims Inflation Steals Wild Weather's Thunder
Tower (TWR) has downgraded its FY23 NPAT guidance by - Z$10m at the midpoint, citing an ongoing challenging claims environment impacted by inflation, motor crime and supply chain issues.
27 July 2023 | ikeGPS - Transactions Stumble while Subscriptions Surge
ikeGPS (IKE) reported a subdued 1Q24, with short-term weakness in Platform Transactions partially offset by continued growth in Platform Subscriptions.
24 August 2023 | Turners Automotive Group Ltd - Core Auto Retailing Continues to Drive Results
Turners Automotive's (TRA) FY24 trading update and commentary from management at its ASM highlight the continued resilience of its businesses and the success of its strategy, despite a challenging operating backdrop.
31 August 2023 | MHM Automation - Unpacking the Wyma Acquisition and MHM's Solid Organic Growth Story
MHM Automation's (MHM) strong FY23 result showed promising early signs from the transformational acquisition of Wyma and highlighted continued momentum in its underlying business, reaffirming our positive view.
2 October 2023 | ikeGPS - Key Customer Transactional Delays Continue
ikeGPS (IKE) released a trading update as part of its 2023 ASM, guiding 1H24 revenue lower than the NZ$15.4m reported in 1H23 and beneath analyst expectations.
17 October 2023 | Tower Limited - FY23 Updated for Final Large Event Costs
Tower (TWR) has revised its FY23 guidance and now expects underlying profit after tax to be between NZ$7m and NZ$10m, up +NZ$8m at the midpoint.
30 October 2023 | Rakon Limited - Telecoms Weakness Persists
While Rakon (RAK) has previously said it expects customer inventory levels to normalise by the end of FY24 (to March 2024), our analysis of recent updates from listed telecoms infrastructure companies suggests challenging trading conditions...
6 November 2023 | MHM Automation - Scheme Implementation Agreement Signed
MHM Automation (MHM) has entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement (SIA) to sell 100% of the company to US manufacturing firm Bettcher Industries.
9 November 2023 | NZME Limited - Navigating Media's Digital Wave
NZME Limited (NZM) is an integrated media company with operations across three divisions: Audio, Publishing, and OneRoof.
24 November 2023 | Tower Limited - Goodbye FY23 Floods, Hello FY24
TWR reported a mixed FY23 with strong Gross Written Premium (GWP) growth offset by higher Business as Usual (BAU)
and large events claims costs.
and large events claims costs.
30 November 2023 | ikeGPS 1H24 Transactional Revenue Weakness
ikeGPS (IKE) experienced a challenging 1H24, witnessed by a -32% fall in revenues to NZ$10.5m from 1H23.
22 December 2023 | ikeGPS Top US Utility Signs on in PoleForeman Deal
ikeGPS (IKE) has announced a NZ$3.7m five-year subscription contract with one of the largest investor-owned utilities in the US.
26 January 2024 | Rakon Limited MercuryX™ and the AI Hardware Revolution
Rakon (RAK) has unveiled its new MercuryX™ product range, targeted at AI computing, data centres (DCs), 5G and 6G, and
satellite applications...
satellite applications...
15 March 2021 | A Tower of Strength
We initiate coverage of Tower (TWR), a New Zealand based pure-play general insurer, focussed predominately on personal lines insurance throughout New Zealand and the Pacific Islands.
18 May 2021 | Hopes for FY21 Growth Go Up in Smoke
Tower (TWR) has downgraded its FY21 guidance for underlying NPAT from >NZ$29.8m to NZ$25–27m (-13% at the midpoint) a little over a week out from its 1H21 result. We have made preliminary adjustments to our forecasts based on the limited details released.
27 May 2021 | Tower 1H21 Result
Tower (TWR) reported a disappointing 1H21 result and we have again downgraded our estimates. We remain encouraged by the strong premium growth from the Tower Direct business and continued efficiency improvements, but now expect some permanent degradation.
14 June 2021 | Raining on Expectations
Tower (TWR) has provided estimates of the impact of the recent Canterbury floods which has lifted its annual assumption for ‘large events’ to the maximum annual level of NZ$14.0m versus NZ$9.7m previously.
2 November 2021 | Tidying up the Pacific
Tower (TWR) has announced the purchase of an additional 22% stake in Samoan headquartered National Pacific Insurance (NPI), taking TWR's stake from 71% to 93%, costing NZ$3.4m. TWR will now move to compulsorily acquire the remaining 7% of shareholders.
11 November 2021 | Reassessing Flood and Climate Change Risks
Tower (TWR) has released an important change in how it assesses flooding risk after a year of background research, analysis and extensive modelling.
25 November 2021 | FY21 Simplifying the Story
Tower (TWR) released its FY21 result which showed the impact of a challenging period of weather and COVID impacted claims.
24 January 2022 | Hunga Tonga — Hunga Ha'apai
Tower (TWR.NZ) has updated the market, saying it is in the early stages of assessing the impact of a powerful ‘1 in 1,000 year event’ eruption near Tonga. It remains too early to properly determine or estimate the cost of repairs at this stage.
3 February 2022 | Steady as She Goes - But Growing
Tower (TWR) held its ASM and gave an upbeat update to the market on business performance, the capital return, Tongan eruption impacts and solid underlying business growth.
27 May 2022 | FY22 Record Result Awaits New Capacity
Rakon Limited (RAK) reported its most profitable year (in its fifty year history) over FY22, with underlying EBITDA of NZ$54.4m +132%, on revenue of NZ$172m +34%.
10 June 2022 | The Front Line of Trade
Global trade and commerce complexities cry out for modern solutions to streamline supply chains. Trade Window's (TWL) solutions replace time-consuming, manual, paper-based processes with secure, digital solutions.
14 September 2022 | ikeGPS Group Ltd
ikeGPS (IKE) is a productivity solutions company with products that enable the collection, measurement and engineering analysis of distribution pole data and distribution pole projects for electric utilities, telecommunications groups and related...
3 October 2022 | ikeGPS - Solid AGM Update Driven By Customer & USD Tailwinds
At its AGM on Friday, 30 September 2022, ikeGPS (IKE) updated the market on progress and provided revenue expectations for 1H23 (to the end of September 2022).
19 October 2022 | ikeGPS - Exceptional Momentum Continues in 1H23
ikeGPS (IKE) updated the market with 1H23 revenues of NZ$15.4m. This was above the NZ$14.7m to NZ$15.0m guidance the company provided at its ASM in September 2022.
21 November 2022 | Trade Window Holdings - 1H23 — Awaiting Offshore Growth Drivers
TradeWindow (TWL) announced its inaugural 1H23 result with total revenue of NZ$2.7m and an EBITDA loss of -NZ$5.9m. While gross margin was stable, costs came in below our estimate, resulting in a lower than expected loss.
25 November 2022 | Rakon Limited - Post Strong 1H23 Result, Outlook Softens
Rakon (RAK) reported underlying EBITDA of NZ$28.1m for 1H23, up +6% from 1H22 and ahead of our expectations of NZ$19.9m. The significant uplift relative to expectations was due to a net +NZ$7.4m foreign exchange gain.
16 January 2023 | Trade Window Holdings - Updated Guidance and Longer Term Outlook
TradeWindow (TWL) provided an update on its financial performance for FY23. The company has seen some implementations taking longer than expected, which has pushed expected revenue into FY24.
20 January 2023 | Scott Technology - Transforming Industry via Smart Automation
Scott Technology’s (SCT) market-leading products are transforming industries by replacing dangerous, dirty, repetitive manual processes with cost-effective, productive, safe automation.
20 February 2023 | Tower Limited - FY23 Estimates Flooded, but the Inflationary Environment Continues in Higher GWP Growth
Tower (TWR) has updated FY23 guidance after two severe weather events impacted the North Island; the Auckland floods in January and Cyclone Gabrielle in February 2023.
1 March 2023 | Tower Limited - 1Q23 and ASM Updates
Tower (TWR) released further information about Auckland's January floods and February's Cyclone Gabrielle during its 1Q23 update and ASM.
8 March 2023 | Turners Automotive Group Ltd - Fueling Growth Despite Headwinds
Turners Automotive Group (TRA) has updated its FY23 guidance, with profit before tax (PBT) now expected to be at least NZ$44.0m for the year ending 31 March.
5 April 2023 | Tower Limited Edition 3 — NZ General Insurance Digest
The New Zealand General Insurance Digest provides a snapshot of relevant information for the general insurance industry. We detail information pertinent to Tower (TWR), local financial comparables and Australasian listed insurance peers.
5 May 2023 | ikeGPS - Solid 4Q23 Update as FY23 Electrifies
ikeGPS (IKE) reported a solid 4Q23 and FY23 update for the year ending 31 March 2023. Total FY23 revenues were NZ$30.8m, representing a +93% increase on the prior year and 4Q23 revenues were NZ$7.5m, up +23%.
24 May 2023 | Turners Automotive Group Ltd - Brand Momentum Drives Market Share Growth
Turners Automotive Group (TRA) reported a solid FY23 result that was slightly ahead of our expectations and the guidance provided by the company in March 2023.
20 June 2023 | Rakon Limited - New Indian Plant Opens Opportunities
Rakon (RAK) has opened its new state-of-the-art research and manufacturing facility in Bengaluru, India, replacing two of its leased sites in the city, future-proofing its Indian operations and signalling a significant move towards expansion.
4 July 2023 | Tower Limited - Tidy Up Continues With Solomon Islands Sale
Tower (TWR) has announced the conditional agreement to sell its Solomon Islands business to Trans Pacific Assurance Limited (TPA) for around SBD$17m or NZ$3.3m.
23 September 2021 | New Guidance on the Journey
Given recent weather events, constraints due to COVID-19 and inflationary pressures there was always the risk Tower (TWR) would need to re-visit its earnings guidance for the upcoming FY21 result.
17 December 2021 | Stars Align
Rakon (RAK) is a New Zealand headquartered technology company specialising in high-frequency control systems and timing solutions.
3 February 2022 | Sector and 5G Market Updated
For investors it has been a rough start to 2022. Global markets and the technology sector specifically have fallen, reacting to changes in inflation expectations and the change in the stance of several central banks.
11 February 2022 | Shooting for the Stars
Rakon (RAK) has upgraded its FY22 underlying EBITDA earnings guidance range to NZ$49m–NZ$53m, up from its prior estimate of NZ$44m–NZ$49m. At the midpoint this is a solid +10% upgrade.
27 May 2022 | 1H22 Growth Upset by Large Events
Tower Limited's (TWR) 1H22 showed improving trends at the top line and reasonable cost control (where controllable) but again large claims expenses muddied the waters. Large events costs were NZ$17.9m in 1H22 versus NZ$9.3m in 1H21.
12 August 2022 | 2022 ASM - Initial FY23 Guidance Impresses
Rakon (RAK) provided an upbeat shareholder update at its Annual Shareholder Meeting (ASM), giving its initial Underlying EBITDA FY23 guidance range of NZ$36m to NZ$44m. At the mid-point this amounts to a +6% uplift on our prior estimates.
3 October 2022 | Tower Limited - FY23 Reinsurance Programme Update
Tower (TWR) updated the market on its FY23 reinsurance programme with savings obtained for comprehensive cover.
5 October 2022 | Tower Limited - New Zealand General Insurance Digest
The New Zealand General Insurance Digest provides a snapshot of relevant information for the general insurance industry. We detail information pertinent to Tower (TWR), local financial comparables and Australasian listed insurance peers. Edition 1.
31 October 2022 | Trade Window Holdings - US Footprint and Key Partner Announced
TradeWindow (TWL) has partnered with the global food safety, quality and sustainability solutions company FoodChain ID. Its new partner provides access to 30,000 customers worldwide, which FoodChain ID manages from offices in 14 countries.
8 February 2023 | Turners Automotive Group Ltd - Driving in the Right Direction
Turners Automotive Group (TRA) is an integrated automotive and financial services company, providing Finance, Insurance and Credit Management solutions besides the main Automotive Retailing business.
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