The latest Forsyth Barr Pulse of NZ Business survey has uncovered cautious optimism among New Zealand businesses, suggesting that an economic recovery could be taking root—particularly in regional areas.
With more than 1,400 businesses surveyed, this fifth edition of Forsyth Barr’s Pulse survey is one of the largest corporate sentiment studies in the country. The results point to a turning tide: while challenges remain, many businesses believe the year ahead will be better than the one just passed.
Key Highlights:
- Improved Outlook: A majority of respondents reported stronger demand over the past three months and anticipate further improvement in the next 12 months.
- Regional Resilience: Regional businesses are performing better than urban centres by a margin of 3 to 1, positioning them to lead the recovery, especially those tied to the agriculture sector.
- Sector Shifts:
- Positive momentum: Freight, agriculture, and professional services have shown consistent improvement.
- Holding ground: Property and aged care sectors are also seeing increased demand.
- Lagging: Construction remains subdued, while the retail sector has reversed the optimism seen earlier in the year.
“While we’ve seen similar levels of confidence before—particularly after the 2023 election and initial rate cut announcements—this time there’s a sense that the optimism is backed by actual improvement in forecasts,” says Aaron Ibbotson, Director/Senior Analyst at Forsyth Barr.
Despite continued global and domestic headwinds—including weak macro conditions and lingering uncertainty—businesses are showing a slow but steady climb from the extreme pessimism seen in 2022/23.
“With over 1,400 respondents and a high participation rate, this is now arguably New Zealand’s largest business confidence survey,” adds Mr Ibbotson. “The findings provide a genuine snapshot of what’s happening across the economy at the coalface.”
The survey was conducted between 3 and 22 June 2025 and included insights from owners, directors, employees, and contractors across a diverse range of sectors and business sizes. Most participants generated the bulk of their revenue within New Zealand.
Download the Forsyth Barr Pulse of Business Report.
