OPEC+ November supply hike stable from October at 137,000 bpd
Refinery maintenance to limit oil demand in Q4, analysts say
Weak demand outlooks in Q4 to also cap near-term gains
Updates prices and market activity to settlement
By Nicole Jao
NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices gained about 1% on Monday after the OPEC+ production increase planned for November was more modest than expected, tempering some concerns about supply additions, though a soft outlook for demand is likely to cap near-term gains.
Brent crude futures settled 94 cents, or 1.46%, higher at $65.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.69, up 81 cents, or 1.33%.
"The market feel that the actual amount of oil that is going to hit the market is far less than what they announced, given that some of the OPEC+ members are already producing at capacity," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Russia and some smaller producers, said it would from November by 137,000 barrels per day, matching October's figure, amid persistent concern over a looming supply glut.
In the run-up to the meeting, sources said although Russia was advocating for an increase of 137,000 bpd to avoid pressuring prices, Saudi Arabia would have preferred double, triple or even four times that to quickly regain market share.
The modest production update also comes at a time of rising Venezuelan exports, the resumption of Kurdish oil flows via Turkey, and the presence of unsold Middle Eastern barrels for November loading, PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said.
Saudi Arabia kept the official selling price for the Arab Light crude it sells to Asia.
While refining sources in Asia surveyed by Reuters had expected a slight increase, those expectations diminished as concerns about rising Middle Eastern crude supply felled the premium to a 22-month low last week.
In the near term, some analysts expect the refinery maintenance season starting soon in the Middle East will help to cap prices.
The Kirishi oil refinery, one of Russia's largest, its most productive crude unit following a drone attack and subsequent fire on October 4, with its recovery expected to take about a month, two industry sources said on Monday.
Expectations of weak demand fundamentals in the fourth quarter are another factor limiting the market's upside.
U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected in the week ended September 26 as refining activity and demand softened, the Energy Information Administration said last week.
"If we see a steadier rise in production then the downside in oil prices may be contained. Much now depends on whether the U.S. economy can reaccelerate over the rest of 2025 and into 2026, which would help demand immensely," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group.
(Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York, Seher Dareen in London, Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Sharon Singleton and Nia Williams)
((Nicole.Jao@thomsonreuters.com [Nicole.Jao@thomsonreuters.com]; Twitter/X: @ByNicoleJao; +1 646 540 2216))
