Focus
Forsyth Barr Focus presents a perspective on key market dynamics. These are designed to highlight issues we believe are particularly relevant for long-term investors, and to focus on opportunities that will benefit portfolios in the years ahead. If you have any questions, your Forsyth Barr Investment Adviser, supported by our research team, is available at any time to provide you with further insight and advice.
Intergenerational Wealth:
Planning the Legacy You Leave
27 February 2026
For many New Zealanders, the retirement years are the result of a lifetime of effort. Over the coming decades, an estimated $1.6 trillion of this wealth is expected to pass from one generation to the next. This transfer is not only financial; it also carries your values, intentions, and the opportunities you hope to create for others.

Investing in Quality: Doing Nothing Can Be the Hardest
Trades
25 February 2026
Owning great businesses over the long term has historically been one of the most reliable paths to wealth creation. This sounds simple. In reality, the challenges are both analytical — identifying quality in the first place — and psychological — sticking with it over time.

New Zealand–India Free Trade Agreement: A Bridge to a Billion Consumers
27 January 2026
On 22 December 2025, New Zealand concluded negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA) with India. The FTA did not dominate headlines in the way some trade deals do. There were no immediate step-changes in dairy access, and no overnight surges in export volumes, but that understates the possible significance of what has been achieved.
From Grind to Growth: New Zealand Shifts Into Gear
15 December 2025
The past three years have been challenging for New Zealand households and businesses. Unlike past downturns sparked by global crises or financial shocks, this one was engineered at home. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted interest rates aggressively to contain runaway inflation, suppressing economic activity along the way. The medicine has worked, inflation is back under control, and interest rates have fallen sharply — but not without cost.
Bubble or No Bubble? That is Not the Question
20 November 2025
Since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in late 2022, artificial intelligence has dominated markets and driven excellent returns. Today, with AI investment surging and market valuations at historically elevated levels, many investors are asking: are we in a bubble? In our view, framing the debate as simply ‘bubble or no bubble’ is unhelpful – this is neither a time for panic nor a time for complacency. Investors need to take a balanced view, recognising that some parts of the market warrant caution while others still present robust long-term opportunities.
The House Doesn’t Always Win
14 November 2025
For a long time, many New Zealanders viewed owning property as a sure thing. Historically, strong price growth, the ability to use debt, and the comfort of bricks and mortar drew both homeowners and investors. In recent years that allure has been dented. Nationwide, house prices are down around -16% since the 2021 peak, while costs such as rates, insurance, and interest have soared. Despite this challenging period, many believe property prices will recommence their steady upward climb in the years ahead. We are less convinced. The landscape in 2025 looks very different from the one that fuelled the previous decades-long boom. We suspect that those expecting house price growth at levels seen in the past will be disappointed.
Flying Into the Future
10 October 2025
Air travel is one of those everyday conveniences many of us take for granted — whether it’s visiting family, exploring new places, or doing business. For New Zealand, the aviation industry carries even greater weight. As an island nation far from global markets, flying is essential to connect us to the world. Tourism, trade, and even the ability for families to remain connected all rely heavily on aviation.
Optimistic About New Zealand’s Energy Future:
Interview with Stew Hamilton, Mercury CEO
1 October 2025
You joined Mercury just over four years ago and have been CEO for a year. What has been your focus since stepping into the CEO role?
It’s been a really interesting ride. A lot of significant changes have happened to Mercury over those four years. Those include the acquisition of Tilt Renewables and rolling its wind portfolio into Mercury, and the acquisition of Trustpower’s retail business and rolling that in as well. They have significantly shifted what Mercury looks like.
Farmers Get the Cream
9 September 2025
Fonterra recently announced the sale of its consumer and associated businesses (Mainland Group) to French dairy company, Lactalis for $4.2 billion. The sale is set to be a windfall for New Zealand farmers. Fonterra will return $2 per share (tax free) to farmer-shareholders—totalling $3.2 billion, about a 20% boost to on-farm revenue at a time when milk prices and farm profitability are already near record levels.
The Power of Compounding Knowledge
7 August 2025
We are privileged to live in an era of extraordinary progress. Although modern humans have existed for around 300,000 years, most advancements in life expectancy, education, and living standards have occurred in just the last 300, around 0.1% of our time as a species. Progress has been driven by our ability to record, share, utilise, and build upon knowledge. Today, artificial intelligence (AI) is adding a new layer of capability, with the potential to supercharge innovation and productivity and unlock even greater potential across the global economy.
Philanthropy and the Great Wealth Transfer
16 July 2025
New Zealand ranks among the world’s most generous nations. While our philanthropists may not be household names like their counterparts in the United States, charitable giving is alive in our culture. New Zealand consistently sits in the top 10 countries in the Charities Aid Foundation’s World Giving Index. Over the years, donations to charity have steadily increased, reflecting a growing commitment to philanthropy across the country.
Fonterra’s Pivot: Trimming the Fat, Keeping the Cream
23 June 2025
When Fonterra announced plans to divest its consumer brands business in May last year, many New Zealanders were surprised. The portfolio — now dubbed Mainland Group — includes household staples and recognisable brands such as Anchor milk, Mainland cheese, Primo milk, and Fresh’n Fruity yoghurt. Some viewed the move as an admission by Fonterra of its failure to add value. However, we see it as a pragmatic recognition of where Fonterra excels.
Avoid the Home Market Bias
12 June 2025
When it comes to investing, familiarity often feels like safety. But for many investors—particularly here in New Zealand—this comfort can come at a cost. Home market bias is a behavioural tendency of investors to allocate a disproportionate share of their funds to their local market. Unfortunately, this bias can quietly dent the long-term performance and resilience of a portfolio.
Warren Buffett: Timeless Lessons from the Oracle of Omaha
16 May 2025
This month marked the end of an era: 94-year-old Warren Buffett announced his retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Known as the ‘Oracle of Omaha’, Buffett is the world’s most famous investor, admired not only for his stellar investing track record but also for his humility and wisdom. His approach to investing and life provides timeless lessons for investors.
Addressing New Zealand’s Growing Water Quality Issues
1 May 2025
Clean water is one of our most precious natural assets – but it is finite. Pressure on water resources is reaching a critical level both in New Zealand and globally. Demand for clean water is on an upward trajectory as the global population grows, more economies industrialise, and urbanisation trends continue. At the same time, our aged infrastructure and increasingly intense weather events are exacerbating the demand. We outline key global and local challenges in clean water management and look at how one US-based global company, Xylem, is leveraging technology to help solve some of these pressing issues.
Trumped-Up Volatility: Keep Calm and Carry On
29 April 2025
Markets have been extremely volatile over the past two months. For most, watching the value of your investments swing wildly is disconcerting. In times like these, it can be tempting to batten down the hatches and retreat from the market. Our advice: act only after calm and careful consideration. History highlights that emotional, reactive decisions during periods of volatility are often detrimental to your long-term wealth.
Farewell to Free Trade? Trump’s Tariffs Rattle Markets
7 April 2025
President Donald Trump’s 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement marks one of the most sweeping trade policy shifts in modern history and has sent shockwaves through global markets. The magnitude and breadth of tariffs, and the rapid pace of implementation, surprised investors and raised serious concerns about an escalating trade war and its impact on the global economy. Unfortunately, it is now clear that the Trump administration is inclined to surprise, and policy can evolve rapidly and significantly. This makes for a tricky, disconcerting environment for investors. The key is to remain level-headed, maintain a well-diversified portfolio, and focus on the long term.
Growth vs. Value Investing: It’s Not One or the Other
21 March 2025
Different investors take different approaches. The two most widely recognised styles in equity markets are growth and value. Sometimes the debate around which approach works best can feel like a religious war, with both sides dogmatically arguing their case. In our view, however, all investments need consideration of both a company’s growth prospects and its valuation – the two are intrinsically linked. More broadly, maintaining exposure to both styles in a portfolio can be beneficial. Different strategies perform better under different market conditions. A well-diversified mix can enhance a portfolio’s resilience over the long term.
Women and Wealth: Taking Charge of Financial Futures
27 February 2025
Women in New Zealand retire with significantly less savings than men – sometimes tens of thousands of dollars less – despite living longer. This financial disparity, known as the ‘retirement wealth gap’, leaves many women vulnerable when they should be enjoying financial security. Why does this gap persist, and more importantly, how can we close it?
Interest Rates Cut Again
20 February 2025
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has delivered another 50 bps interest rate cut, bringing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) down to 3.75%. This latest reduction is part of an ongoing effort to revive economic activity amid softening inflation and sluggish growth. Further cuts are expected, with the OCR likely to finish the year closer to 3%, impacting businesses, investors, and everyday savers.

Tariffs: Trump Card or Bluff?
7 February 2025
President Trump campaigned on tariffs, and in his first two weeks he came out swinging, announcing new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. Although tariffs on Mexico and Canada were quickly deferred, they are clearly a key part of Trump’s playbook. The will-he, won’t-he nature of Trump’s trade policies creates a challenging environment for businesses and markets, with the rules of engagement unclear and subject to rapid change. Uncertainty and volatility are likely to remain features of the Trump presidency.

DeepSeek: A Threat to AI Optimism?
30 January 2025
How many people had heard of DeepSeek a month or so ago? We hadn’t. But in the past few days this Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) company has grabbed global headlines and shaken the share prices of some of the world’s largest companies. While investing in new and exciting industries like AI can deliver outstanding returns, the sudden emergence of DeepSeek serves as a reminder that unpredictability and volatility are also part of the ride.
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Any recommendations or opinions in these publications are general in nature and do not take your personal circumstances into account. For personalised financial advice contact your Forsyth Barr Investment Adviser.

















