Markets continue to whipsaw. Concerns around inflation, and potential recession, are front of mind. Central banks are committed to bringing inflation down to target levels. But what will it take to get there? How far will interest rates rise? And will it require a recession? By their own admissions central bankers don't know. Outcomes will be affected by unpredictable factor such as the war in Ukraine, China's perseverance with a zero-COVID policy, and the continued blockages in global supply chains. Unfortunately, uncertainty and market volatility may run for a while yet.