The House Doesn’t Always Win

For a long time, many New Zealanders viewed owning property as a sure thing. Historically, strong price growth, the ability to use debt, and the comfort of bricks and mortar drew both homeowners and investors. In recent years that allure has been dented. Nationwide, house prices are down around -16% since the 2021 peak, while costs such as rates, insurance, and interest have soared. Despite this challenging period, many believe property prices will recommence their steady upward climb in the years ahead. We are less convinced. The landscape in 2025 looks very different from the one that fuelled the previous decades-long boom. We suspect that those expecting house price growth at levels seen in the past will be disappointed.